Trades closed in November 2012

ComfortDelGro
1 Oct: Opened LONG $1.700
12 Nov: Closed at $1.595
Loss $0.105, 6.2%

Esprit Holdings
5 Mar: Opened LONG at $19.00
14 Novl: Closed at $10.66
Loss $8.34, 43.9%

Trades closed in October 2012

None.

Trades closed in September 2012

UOB
1 Aug: Opened SHORT at $19.79
14 Sep: Covered at $19.14
Note: XD on 30 Aug, dividend of $0.20
Profit $0.45, 2.3% 

SPDR Financial (XLF)
12 Apr: Opened LONG at $15.30
20 Sep: Closed at $15.88
Note: Collected divided of $0.04663 per share in Jun.
Profit $0.62663, 4.1%

ComfortDelGro: Breakout from congestion

 

Line chart shows the breakout from the trading range.

The breakout had heavy volume.

 

Long-term GMMA is moving in a parallel fashion.
Short term GMMA is expanding and separating from the long-term group.
However, the long-term GMMA had compressed slightly, so need to remain alert for a collapse in the uptrend.

Trading plan: buy at $1.70, take profit at $1.77

Outcome:

 

1 Oct: Opened LONG $1.700
12 Nov: Closed at $1.595
Reason for closing: Stop loss triggered
Loss $0.105, 6.2%

Wal-Mart: Bearish divergence in weekly time-frame

 

Bearish divergence in weekly time-frame.
Weekly Impulse allows to go short in the daily time-frame.

Hitting resistance at $75 in the daily time-frame.
Daily Impulse allows to go short in the daily time-frame.

Wilmar: Island Reversal pattern

Prolonged downtrend, terminating with an Island Reversal pattern.
Rising window with heavy volume.

Procter n Gamble: Breakout from resistance

 Weekly chart shows the breakout from resistance at $67.80.

Daily chart shows the breakout from resistance with heavy volume.

Outcome:

10 Sep: Opened LONG at $68.26
29 Jan: Closed at $75.18
Note: Collected after-tax divided of $0.38905 per share in Nov 2012 (declared in Oct 2012); and $0.38905 per share in Feb 2013 (declared in Jan 2013).
Reason for closing: Price of PG had reached the all-time historical high of $75.18 from Dec 2007.
Profit $7.30905, 11.3%

SPDR Energy: Breakout from resistance

Breakout from $73.00 resistance level with heavy volume over the last 2 days.
Also rebound from preliminary uptrend channel support.

Long-term GMMA well separated and moving in a parallel fashion.
Short-term GMMA compressed and now expanding.


Outcome:
Placed order to buy at $73.10, but was not filled.
Price has runaway, so not chasing the price.

Trades closed in August 2012

None.

Trades closed in July 2012

Genting SP
20 Jun: Opened LONG at $1.445
13 Jul: Closed at $1.360
Loss $0.085, 5.9%

UOB: Overbought at resistance

UOB currently at $20 horizontal resistance level.
Strategy: open short position at resistance.


Outcome:

1 Aug: Opened SHORT at $19.79
14 Sep: Covered at $19.14
Reason for closing: Inverted hammer and oversold stochastic oscillator seen on 3 Sep.
Note: XD on 30 Aug, dividend of $0.20
Profit $0.45, 2.3%

Genting SP: Weekly oversold at Fibonacci level

Weekly chart shows Genting SP is now oversold at the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Price has been range-bound within the 38.2% and 61.8% levels for the past 6 months or so.
Seek to enter long at support level when oversold.

Cut-loss of support fails, target to take profit at 61.8% Fibonacci level ($1.77).


Outcome:

20 Jun: Opened LONG at $1.445
13 Jul: Closed at $1.360
Reason for closing: Price did not rebound from 38.2% Fibonacci level as anticipated, with 3 consecutive weeks closing below the support level.
Loss $0.085, 5.9%

Trades closed in June 2012

None.

Trades closed in May 2012

None.

Trades closed in April 2012

Microsoft
5 Mar: Opened LONG at $32.00
9 Apr: Closed at $31.05
Loss $0.95, 3.0%

SPDR Financial: Bullish harami at 50d SMA

Weekly Impulse allows to go long in the daily time-frame.



GMMA long-term group is well separated and moving in a broadly parallel pattern. The strong underlying trend has a low probability of a sudden collapse.
There is a possible trend channel.



Bullish harami formed at 50d SMA trendline support.
The pattern was formed below the 10d EMA and stochastic oscillator %D is below 20; this passes the candle pattern filtering.



13d EMA and MACD-Histogram both sloping down, so daily Impulse still does not allow to go long.
The 13d EMA or MACD-Histogram must tick up in the next session in order to go long.

Outcome:

 
12 Apr: Opened LONG at $15.30
20 Sep: Closed at $15.88
Reason for closing: Doji formed on 14/09/2012 with heavy volume and subsequently $16.00 S/R level broken.
Note: Collected divided of $0.04663 per share in Jun 2012.
Profit $0.62663, 4.1%

Trades closed in March 2012

Host Hotel n Resort
24 Feb: Opened LONG at $16.04
5 Mar: Closed at $15.45
Loss $0.59, 3.7%

Union Pacific
21 Feb: Opened LONG at $110.50
6 Mar: Closed at $105.90
Loss $4.60, 4.2%

Caterpillar
5 Mar: Opened SHORT at $111.42
8 Mar: Closed at $109.66
Profit $1.76, 1.6%

Hewlett-Packard
5 Mar: Opened SHORT at $25.02
8 Mar: Closed at $24.48
Profit $0.54, 2.2%

DBS
26 Jan: Opened LONG at $13.43
12 Mar: Closed at $14.20
Profit $0.77, 5.7%

FnN
20 Feb: Opened LONG at $6.45
12 Mar: Closed at $6.66
Profit $0.21, 3.3%

Olam
23 Feb: Opened LONG at $2.34
12 Mar: Closed at $2.28
Loss $0.06, 2.6%

Citigroup
6 Mar:Opened SHORT at $32.40
7 Mar: Closed at $34.85
Loss $2.45, 7.6%

12 Mar:Opened SHORT at $33.92
13 Mar: Closed at $35.18
Loss $1.26, 3.7%

New World Development
28 Feb: Opened LONG at $10.68
14 Mar: Closed at $10.14
Profit $0.54, 5.1%

DBS
12 Mar: Opened SHORT at $14.23
14 Mar: Closed at $14.47
Loss $0.24, 1.7%

Citigroup
6 Feb: Opened LONG at $33.24
19 Mar: Closed LONG at $36.80
Profit $3.56, 10.7%

JP Morgan Chase
6 Feb: Opened LONG at $38.06
19 Mar: Closed at $44.84
Profit $6.78, 17.8%

Hewlett-Packard
21 Mar: Opened SHORT at $23.45
22 Mar: Covered at $23.12
Profit $0.33, 1.4%

SPDR Gold
23 Mar: Opened LONG at $160.70
28 Mar: Closedd at $162.40
Profit $1.70, 1.1%

SPDR Gold: Rebound off Fibonacci level

GLD made a rebound at the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
It gapped down, and made a Bullish Belt Hold Line candlestick pattern.
Stochastic oscillator %D is at oversold level.

Cut loss if price falls below $148.30, target to take profit at $174.00 (100% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

23 Mar: Opened LONG at $160.70
28 Mar: Closedd at $162.40
Reason for closing: Retreat from $164.20 (61.8% Fibonacci level) seen.
Profit $1.70, 1.1%

Hewlett-Packard: Breakdown from short-term consolidation

Both 13w EMA and weekly MACD-Histogram are sloping down, so weekly Impulse only allows to go short or stand aside; going long is not allowed.



The previous post on HPQ identified a Rising Wedge chart pattern.
The chart pattern is still valid.
HPQ has broken the short-term support after consolidating for the last two weeks.

21 Mar: Opened SHORT at $23.45.
Cut loss if HPQ breaks above the $24.67 resistance.


Outcome:

21 Mar: Opened SHORT at $23.45
22 Mar: Covered at $23.12
Reason for closing: Falling window in oversold condition. Eliminate risk and take profit.
Profit $0.33, 1.4%

DBS: Fibonacci retracement setup

Again trying to pick a top for DBS after the previous failed attempt.

The price has been advancing for almost two months without a meaningful retracement.
After the highlighted black candle made a new high with heavy volume, DBS has re-tested the high on lighter volume.
This shows a lack in buying interest to push through the high.

Daily MACD-Histogram shows bearish divergence with price.
Smoothed RSI also showing bearish divergence.

Cut loss if $14.46 resistance is broken; target to cover short at $13.24 (61.8% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

12 Mar: Opened SHORT at $14.23
14 Mar: Closed at $14.47
Reason for closing: Buy stop order triggered.
Loss $0.24, 1.7%

STI: end-of-week 9 March 2012

This is a STI weekly chart going all the way back to 1997.
Arrows on the price chart point out to where the STI makes a 52-week low for the first time after a new 52-week high.
i.e. 1-year low signifying the end of the bull trend / or confirmation of the bear trend.
Arrows on the stochastic oscillator are where it becomes overbought for the first time, after making the 52-week low.
Highlighted on the chart are the price movement immediately after the overbought stochastic oscillator.

So look what is the situation at the moment now.
The stock market adage is that history repeats itself.
Is history going to repeat itself here?

Citigroup: Unable to penetrate resistance

C again unable to penetrate the resistance around $34.40.
Need to consider opening a short position for a short-term hedge on the existing long position.


Outcome:

6 Mar:Opened SHORT at $32.40
7 Mar: Closed at $34.85
Loss $2.45, 7.6%

12 Mar:Opened SHORT at $33.92
13 Mar: Closed at $35.18
Loss $1.26, 3.7%

Hewlett-Packard: Breakdown from Rising Wedge chart pattern

Both 13w EMA and weekly MACD-Histogram are sloping down, so weekly Impulse only allows to go short or stand aside; going long is not allowed.



Breakdown from Rising Wedge chart pattern.


Outcome:

5 Mar: Opened SHORT at $25.02
8 Mar: Closed at $24.48
Reason for closing: Bullish harami formed on 07/03/2012 with stochastic oscillator %D at oversold.
Profit $0.54, 2.2%

Esprit Holdings: Breakout from down trend channel

Weekly chart shows that Esprit Holdings had been in a down trend channel since early 2010.
It has been in a down trend channel for about 2 years.
Price has just penetrated the down trend channel resistance.
The last 6 months has seen heavy volume with little weekly price change; this is evidence of accumulation that was going on.
13w EMA and weekly MACD-Histogram are both sloping up, so weekly Impulse only allows to go long or stand aside; shorting is not allowed.



GMMA long-term group now expanding upwards.
GMMA short-term group compressed and had a rapid bounce, and now moving in a parallel fashion.
GMMA short-term group is well separated from the long-term group, indicating a stable trend.



13d EMA and daily MACD-Histogram are both sloping up, so daily Impulse only allows to go long or stand aside; shorting is not allowed.
However, there is a bearish divergence seen - Esprit Holdings is making new highs but the MACD-Histogram and Smoothed RSI are not.
The price may retrace back to test the previous resistance now turned support line.

This is a long-term trade, on the basis of a breakout from the down trend and getting in at the start of the emerging trend and riding it all the way until the evidence shows that it has ended.
First profit target is at $28.00, second profit target is at $36.00.
Cut loss at $13.72 - This is the low of the most recent Bullish Marubozu on 23/02/2012.
If this is really a breakout and change in trend, then the price should not drop below this strong bullish candle where the bulls came in with heavy volume.


Outcome:

5 Mar: Opened LONG at $19.00
14 Novl: Closed at $10.66
Reason for closing: Missed the deadline to subscribe to rights issue. Closed the position to avoid share dilution.
Loss $8.34, 43.9%

Microsoft: Breakout from resistance

Weekly chart shows that $31.50 has been a resistance a few times over the last 5 years and MSFT has now broken through.



Daily chart shows a strong up trend.


Outcome:

5 Mar: Opened LONG at $32.00
9 Apr: Closed at $31.05
Reason for closing: Price broke the up trend line, 20d SMA and fell below the $31.50 S/R level.
Loss $0.95, 3.0%

Trades closed in February 2012

Home Depot
23 Jan: Opened LONG at $44.19
22 Feb: Closed at $47.17
Profit $2.98, 6.7%

SPDR Utilities
25 Jan: Opened LONG at $34.74
22 Feb: Closed at $34.92
Profit $0.18, 0.5%

IndoAgri
30 Jan: Opened LONG at $1.455
20 Feb: Closed at $1.640
Profit $0.185, 12.7%

Alcoa
17 Feb: Opened LONG at $10.30
27 Feb: Closed at $10.38
Profit $0.08, 0.8%

Ezra
20 Feb: Opened SHORT at $1.320
24 Feb: Added on to existing SHORT at $1.255
29 Feb: Closed at $1.260
Profit $0.0275, 2.1%

DBS
28 Feb: Opened SHORT at $14.06
29 Feb: Closed at $14.36
Loss $0.30, 2.1%

Caterpillar: Bearish divergence on MONTHLY chart

Monthly chart shows CAT testing the previous high around $116.
There is a bearish divergence seen on both the monthly MACD-Histogram and Smoothed RSI.



Weekly Impulse allows to sell short.



Daily Impulse allows to sell short.
On this test of the previous high at $116, the MACD histogram is below the equilibrium line.


Outcome:

5 Mar: Opened SHORT at $111.42
8 Mar: Closed at $109.66
Reason for closing: bullish reversal supported at 50d SMA.
Profit $1.76, 1.6%

DBS: Fibonacci retracement setup

Weekly Impulse allows to sell short in the daily time-frame.



The price has been advancing for almost two months without a meaningful retracement.
Evening Star bearish reversal pattern formed.
The pattern is above the 10d EMA, and stochastic oscillator %D is above 80; this passes the candle pattern filtering.
Daily MACD-Histogram shows bearish divergence with price.

This is not a trend trade. This is a short-term counter-trend trade.
This trade is a hedge for the current open LONG position on DBS.

Cut loss if $14.22 resistance is broken; target to cover short at $13.09 (61.8% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

28 Feb: Opened SHORT at $14.06
29 Feb: Closed at $14.36
Reason for closing: Market gapped up at the open above the stop. Buy stop order at $14.22 was filled at $14.36 instead.
Loss $0.30, 2.1%

New World Development: Fibonacci retracement setup

The price has been advancing for almost two months without a meaningful retracement.
Shooting star formed, with price-volume divergence observed.
MACD-Histogram and smoothed RSI both showing bearish divergence.

This is not a trend trade. This is a short-term counter-trend trade.
Cut loss if $10.96 resistance is broken; target to cover short at $9.12 (61.8% Fibonacci)


Outcome:

28 Feb: Opened LONG at $10.68
14 Mar: Closed at $10.14
Reason for closing: Trailing-stop triggered.
Profit $0.54, 5.1%

Possible Bullish Flag: SIA Engg and HL Asia

Both showing steep rise in price with heavy volume to form the flagpole.
Then volume drying up during the formation of the flag.