DBS: Fibonacci retracement setup

Weekly Impulse allows to sell short in the daily time-frame.



The price has been advancing for almost two months without a meaningful retracement.
Evening Star bearish reversal pattern formed.
The pattern is above the 10d EMA, and stochastic oscillator %D is above 80; this passes the candle pattern filtering.
Daily MACD-Histogram shows bearish divergence with price.

This is not a trend trade. This is a short-term counter-trend trade.
This trade is a hedge for the current open LONG position on DBS.

Cut loss if $14.22 resistance is broken; target to cover short at $13.09 (61.8% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

28 Feb: Opened SHORT at $14.06
29 Feb: Closed at $14.36
Reason for closing: Market gapped up at the open above the stop. Buy stop order at $14.22 was filled at $14.36 instead.
Loss $0.30, 2.1%

New World Development: Fibonacci retracement setup

The price has been advancing for almost two months without a meaningful retracement.
Shooting star formed, with price-volume divergence observed.
MACD-Histogram and smoothed RSI both showing bearish divergence.

This is not a trend trade. This is a short-term counter-trend trade.
Cut loss if $10.96 resistance is broken; target to cover short at $9.12 (61.8% Fibonacci)


Outcome:

28 Feb: Opened LONG at $10.68
14 Mar: Closed at $10.14
Reason for closing: Trailing-stop triggered.
Profit $0.54, 5.1%

Possible Bullish Flag: SIA Engg and HL Asia

Both showing steep rise in price with heavy volume to form the flagpole.
Then volume drying up during the formation of the flag.

Host Hotel n Resort: Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern

Weekly Impulse allows to go long in the daily time-frame.




Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern formed.
The engulfing candle completes a non-ideal Morning Star bullish reversal candlestick pattern.
The pattern was formed below the 10d EMA and stochastic oscillator %D is below 20; this passes the candle pattern filtering.



Daily Impulse allows to go long.



Price and Lagging Line are above the cloud. (bullish indication)
GMMA long-term group has not narrowed; it is moving sideways in a parallel pattern with minimal amount of compression.
GMMA short-term group has penetrated the long-term group and then turned up.


Outcome:

24 Feb: Opened LONG at $16.04
5 Mar: Closed at $15.45
Reason for closing: There is no evidence of further buying after the Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Furthermore, the 13w EMA and weekly MACD-Histogram are now both sloping down, so weekly Impulse does not allow to keep LONG position open.
Loss $0.59, 3.7%

Olam: My lottery play for a rebound

Olam had made a strong rally without a meaningful retracement.
It has been in retracement mode the last two weeks or so.
It has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

This is a lottery play because there is no clear buy signal other than the retracement level.

23 Feb: Opened LONG at $2.34
Cut loss if Olam breaks the $2.10 support, target to take profit at $2.76 (100% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

23 Feb: Opened LONG at $2.34
12 Mar: Closed at $2.28
Reason for closing: Crossover within GMMA long-term group of averages and weekly Impulse does not allow to hold long position.
Loss $0.06, 2.6%

Ezra: My lottery play for a retracement

Ezra has been going up for more than two months without a meaningful retracement.
Last week Tuesday there was a long white candle with heavy volume.
Wednesday was a candle with a short body also with heavy volume.
Despite the heavy volume, the bulls were not able to push the price much higher and instead had a long upper shadow.
Thursday was another candle with a long upper shadow.
Friday was a doji with lighter volume, indicating a decrease in buying interest to test the high.

Market is now overbought and the downside risk is greater than the upside potential.

20 Feb: Opened SHORT at $1.32 to make a lottery play for a retracement that is long overdue.
Cut loss if Ezra makes new high, target to cover short at $1.14 (61.8% Fibonacci).
Add on to short position if close below $1.27.


Outcome:

20 Feb: Opened SHORT at $1.320
24 Feb: Added on to existing SHORT at $1.255
29 Feb: Closed at $1.260
Reason for closing: Two-bar Inside Day reversal pattern seen.
Profit $0.0275, 2.1%

Union Pacific: Morning Star bullish reversal pattern

A non-ideal Morning Star bullish reversal pattern formed, supported by the up trend line.
Non-ideal because the third day of the pattern did not close higher than the mid-point of the first day.
The pattern was formed below the 10d EMA and stochastic oscillator %D is below 20; this passes the candle pattern filtering.

Volume analysis reveals that the long black candle was formed with heavy volume.
However, the star despite having a much smaller real body and smaller intra-day range traded with even greater volume.
This shows that a large number of shares changed hands from the "weak hands" to the "smart money" at this turning point.
The third day of the pattern shows that the bulls came in force with heavy volume as well.

GMMA long-term group has not narrowed; it is moving sideways in a parallel pattern with minimal amount of compression.
GMMA short-term group has penetrated the long-term group and then turned up.


Outcome:

21 Feb: Opened LONG at $110.50
6 Mar: Closed at $105.90
Reason for closing: Stop-loss order triggered.
Loss $4.60, 4.2%

Capitaland: Breakout from Bullish Pennant chart pattern

Weekly chart shows that Capitaland has made a convincing broke out from the multi-month down trend channel.



GMMA in the daily chart shows confirmation of the breakout from the down trend channel.

After the breakout, price of Capitaland rose sharply with an increase in volume, forming the flag pole.
Daily volume during the formation of the flap pole was greater than the average volume.
During the formation of the pennant, volume dried up and was lower than the average volume.
The last candlestick made a Rising Window and formed a Bullish Kicking pattern on heavy volume to breakout from the bullish pennant chart pattern.


Outcome:

LONG trade was not opened because was not able to buy at desired price.

Olam: Matching Low bullish candlestick reversal pattern

Weekly chart shows the breakout from the down trend and now Olam has retraced to test the previous resistance turned support.
Weekly Impulse allows to go long in the daily time-frame.



Matching Low bullish candlestick reversal pattern formed below 10d EMA and stochastic oscillator %D below 20.
Candle pattern filtering satisfied.
The second candle shows a re-rest of the low, but with much lower volume, indicating less selling pressure.
Confirmation is recommended before going long.



Daily Impulse does not allow to go long.
Should wait for 13d EMA or MACD-Histogram to tick up first before going long.



Price and Lagging Line are above the cloud. (bullish indication)
Conversion Line is above the Base Line. (bullish indication)
However, GMMA is showing sign of danger of trend collapse.
Thus emphasising to wait for confirmation and for daily Impulse to allow to go long.


Outcome:

The Matching Low bullish candlestick pattern was not confirmed.

FnN: Bullish Kicking candlestick reversal pattern

Weekly Impulse allows to go long in the daily time-frame.
Doji formed, with support at $6.31, which is at the 61.8% Fibonacci level.



Bullish Kicking candlestick reversal pattern formed just above the cloud.
Bullish Kicking candlestick reversal pattern formed at 61.8% Fibonacci level.
GMMA confirms the uptrend channel.



Daily Impulse allows to go long.



Bullish Kicking reversal pattern formed below 10d EMA and oversold stochastic oscillator satisfies the candle pattern filtering.


Outcome:

20 Feb: Opened LONG at $6.45
12 Mar: Closed at $6.66
Reason for closing: Stochastic oscillator is overbought, the MACD-Histogram is not rising, and there is no evidence of enthusiastic buying.
Profit $0.21, 3.3%

Alcoa: Bullish harami formed at top edge of cloud

Weekly chart shows the down trendline has been broken.
Weekly Impulse allows to go long in the daily time-frame.



Daily chart shows that the break in the down trendline was subsequently confirmed by the crossover within the GMMA long-term group.
GMMA long-term group starting to slope upwards.
Bullish harami formed at top edge of the cloud.
Both price and Lagging Line are above the cloud. (bullish indication)
Conversion Line is above the Base Line. (bullish indication)



Daily Impulse allows to go long.



Bullish harami formed below 10d EMA and oversold stochastic oscillator satisfies the candle pattern filtering.



Bullish harami formed just above $10.
$10 has acted both as classical support and resistance in the past.


Outcome:

Subsequent to the original bullish harami, the following candle did not confirm the bullish pattern.
However, the three candles formed a non-ideal Bullish Stick Sandwich reversal pattern.
17 Feb: Opened LONG at $10.30
27 Feb: Closed at $10.38
Reason for closing: AA is not enjoying strong investor support, as evident from the GMMA long-term group of averages that is not expanding.
Profit $0.08, 0.8%

JP Morgan Chase: Double bottom

JPM formed a double bottom chart pattern and broke out from the down trend line.
After the breakout from $37.00, there was a throwback to test the resistance-turned-support.
Price has now gone above the immediate swing high after the formation of the double bottom chart pattern.

This is not a trend trade. This is a double bottom chart pattern trade.


Outcome:

6 Feb: Opened LONG at $38.06
19 Mar: Closed at $44.84
Reason for closing: Price target for double bottom chart pattern achieved.
Profit $6.78, 17.8%

Citigroup: Breakout from down trend

Weekly chart shows a penetration of the down trendline.
Weekly Impulse only allows to go long in the daily time-frame.



Daily chart shows the breakout from the down trend with a rising window.
GMMA short-term group is expanding and rising.
GMMA short-term group is above and separated from the long-term group.
However, GMMA long-term group is not expanding quickly.

This is not a trend trade. This is a breakout / bottom-fishing trade.


Outcome:

6 Feb: Opened LONG at $33.24
19 Mar: Closed LONG at $36.80
Reason for closing: Anticipate strong resistance around $36.60 which has acted as both support and resistance during 2010.
Profit $3.56, 10.7%

ComfortDelGro: Steady up trend with little volatility

Weekly chart shows the breaking of a 9-month-old down trendline follwed by a bullish MA crossover.
This suggests to look for long trade in the daily time-frame.



The price and Lagging Line in the daily chart are above the cloud, indicating bullishness.

GMMA long-term group is running parallel and moving upwards.
GMMA short-term group is separated from the long-term group.
There is not much expansion and compression within the short-term group.
These indicate that ComfortDelGro is in a steady up trend with little volatility.
This is good for someone who does not want volatility, and has the patience to hold and ride the trend until it has been proven to have ended.

Immediate target price is $1.52, next target price is $1.64.


Outcome:

LONG trade was not opened because was not able to buy at desired price.
The target price of $1.52 was achieved on 20 Feb with a dragonfly doji.

Trades closed in January 2012

Coca Cola
29 Dec: Opened SHORT at $69.84
3 Jan: Closed at $70.58
Loss $0.74, 1.1%

Cisco
27 Dec: Opened LONG at $18.50
6 Jan: Closed at $18.96
Profit $0.46, 2.5%

Hong Kong Exchanges
12 Dec: Opened SHORT at $129.20
10 Jan: Covered at $121.90
Profit $7.30, 5.7%

BOC Hong Kong
16 Dec: Opened SHORT at $18.10
13 Jan: Covered at $19.96
Reason for closing: Stop-loss triggered.
Loss $1.86, 10.3%

UOB
22 Dec: Opened SHORT at $15.66
13 Jan: Covered at $16.20
Loss $0.54, 3.4%

IBM
27 Dec: Opened LONG at $184.90
13 Jan: Squared at $177.50
Loss $7.40, 4.0%

SIA Engg
27 Dec: Opened SHORT at $3.40
26 Jan: Covered at $3.41
Loss $0.01, 0.3%

Bank of East Asia
9 Jan: Opened SHORT at $28.70
26 Jan: Covered at $31.35
Loss $2.65, 9.2%