Trades closed in March 2012

Host Hotel n Resort
24 Feb: Opened LONG at $16.04
5 Mar: Closed at $15.45
Loss $0.59, 3.7%

Union Pacific
21 Feb: Opened LONG at $110.50
6 Mar: Closed at $105.90
Loss $4.60, 4.2%

Caterpillar
5 Mar: Opened SHORT at $111.42
8 Mar: Closed at $109.66
Profit $1.76, 1.6%

Hewlett-Packard
5 Mar: Opened SHORT at $25.02
8 Mar: Closed at $24.48
Profit $0.54, 2.2%

DBS
26 Jan: Opened LONG at $13.43
12 Mar: Closed at $14.20
Profit $0.77, 5.7%

FnN
20 Feb: Opened LONG at $6.45
12 Mar: Closed at $6.66
Profit $0.21, 3.3%

Olam
23 Feb: Opened LONG at $2.34
12 Mar: Closed at $2.28
Loss $0.06, 2.6%

Citigroup
6 Mar:Opened SHORT at $32.40
7 Mar: Closed at $34.85
Loss $2.45, 7.6%

12 Mar:Opened SHORT at $33.92
13 Mar: Closed at $35.18
Loss $1.26, 3.7%

New World Development
28 Feb: Opened LONG at $10.68
14 Mar: Closed at $10.14
Profit $0.54, 5.1%

DBS
12 Mar: Opened SHORT at $14.23
14 Mar: Closed at $14.47
Loss $0.24, 1.7%

Citigroup
6 Feb: Opened LONG at $33.24
19 Mar: Closed LONG at $36.80
Profit $3.56, 10.7%

JP Morgan Chase
6 Feb: Opened LONG at $38.06
19 Mar: Closed at $44.84
Profit $6.78, 17.8%

Hewlett-Packard
21 Mar: Opened SHORT at $23.45
22 Mar: Covered at $23.12
Profit $0.33, 1.4%

SPDR Gold
23 Mar: Opened LONG at $160.70
28 Mar: Closedd at $162.40
Profit $1.70, 1.1%

SPDR Gold: Rebound off Fibonacci level

GLD made a rebound at the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
It gapped down, and made a Bullish Belt Hold Line candlestick pattern.
Stochastic oscillator %D is at oversold level.

Cut loss if price falls below $148.30, target to take profit at $174.00 (100% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

23 Mar: Opened LONG at $160.70
28 Mar: Closedd at $162.40
Reason for closing: Retreat from $164.20 (61.8% Fibonacci level) seen.
Profit $1.70, 1.1%

Hewlett-Packard: Breakdown from short-term consolidation

Both 13w EMA and weekly MACD-Histogram are sloping down, so weekly Impulse only allows to go short or stand aside; going long is not allowed.



The previous post on HPQ identified a Rising Wedge chart pattern.
The chart pattern is still valid.
HPQ has broken the short-term support after consolidating for the last two weeks.

21 Mar: Opened SHORT at $23.45.
Cut loss if HPQ breaks above the $24.67 resistance.


Outcome:

21 Mar: Opened SHORT at $23.45
22 Mar: Covered at $23.12
Reason for closing: Falling window in oversold condition. Eliminate risk and take profit.
Profit $0.33, 1.4%

DBS: Fibonacci retracement setup

Again trying to pick a top for DBS after the previous failed attempt.

The price has been advancing for almost two months without a meaningful retracement.
After the highlighted black candle made a new high with heavy volume, DBS has re-tested the high on lighter volume.
This shows a lack in buying interest to push through the high.

Daily MACD-Histogram shows bearish divergence with price.
Smoothed RSI also showing bearish divergence.

Cut loss if $14.46 resistance is broken; target to cover short at $13.24 (61.8% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

12 Mar: Opened SHORT at $14.23
14 Mar: Closed at $14.47
Reason for closing: Buy stop order triggered.
Loss $0.24, 1.7%

STI: end-of-week 9 March 2012

This is a STI weekly chart going all the way back to 1997.
Arrows on the price chart point out to where the STI makes a 52-week low for the first time after a new 52-week high.
i.e. 1-year low signifying the end of the bull trend / or confirmation of the bear trend.
Arrows on the stochastic oscillator are where it becomes overbought for the first time, after making the 52-week low.
Highlighted on the chart are the price movement immediately after the overbought stochastic oscillator.

So look what is the situation at the moment now.
The stock market adage is that history repeats itself.
Is history going to repeat itself here?

Citigroup: Unable to penetrate resistance

C again unable to penetrate the resistance around $34.40.
Need to consider opening a short position for a short-term hedge on the existing long position.


Outcome:

6 Mar:Opened SHORT at $32.40
7 Mar: Closed at $34.85
Loss $2.45, 7.6%

12 Mar:Opened SHORT at $33.92
13 Mar: Closed at $35.18
Loss $1.26, 3.7%

Hewlett-Packard: Breakdown from Rising Wedge chart pattern

Both 13w EMA and weekly MACD-Histogram are sloping down, so weekly Impulse only allows to go short or stand aside; going long is not allowed.



Breakdown from Rising Wedge chart pattern.


Outcome:

5 Mar: Opened SHORT at $25.02
8 Mar: Closed at $24.48
Reason for closing: Bullish harami formed on 07/03/2012 with stochastic oscillator %D at oversold.
Profit $0.54, 2.2%

Esprit Holdings: Breakout from down trend channel

Weekly chart shows that Esprit Holdings had been in a down trend channel since early 2010.
It has been in a down trend channel for about 2 years.
Price has just penetrated the down trend channel resistance.
The last 6 months has seen heavy volume with little weekly price change; this is evidence of accumulation that was going on.
13w EMA and weekly MACD-Histogram are both sloping up, so weekly Impulse only allows to go long or stand aside; shorting is not allowed.



GMMA long-term group now expanding upwards.
GMMA short-term group compressed and had a rapid bounce, and now moving in a parallel fashion.
GMMA short-term group is well separated from the long-term group, indicating a stable trend.



13d EMA and daily MACD-Histogram are both sloping up, so daily Impulse only allows to go long or stand aside; shorting is not allowed.
However, there is a bearish divergence seen - Esprit Holdings is making new highs but the MACD-Histogram and Smoothed RSI are not.
The price may retrace back to test the previous resistance now turned support line.

This is a long-term trade, on the basis of a breakout from the down trend and getting in at the start of the emerging trend and riding it all the way until the evidence shows that it has ended.
First profit target is at $28.00, second profit target is at $36.00.
Cut loss at $13.72 - This is the low of the most recent Bullish Marubozu on 23/02/2012.
If this is really a breakout and change in trend, then the price should not drop below this strong bullish candle where the bulls came in with heavy volume.


Outcome:

5 Mar: Opened LONG at $19.00
14 Novl: Closed at $10.66
Reason for closing: Missed the deadline to subscribe to rights issue. Closed the position to avoid share dilution.
Loss $8.34, 43.9%

Microsoft: Breakout from resistance

Weekly chart shows that $31.50 has been a resistance a few times over the last 5 years and MSFT has now broken through.



Daily chart shows a strong up trend.


Outcome:

5 Mar: Opened LONG at $32.00
9 Apr: Closed at $31.05
Reason for closing: Price broke the up trend line, 20d SMA and fell below the $31.50 S/R level.
Loss $0.95, 3.0%

Trades closed in February 2012

Home Depot
23 Jan: Opened LONG at $44.19
22 Feb: Closed at $47.17
Profit $2.98, 6.7%

SPDR Utilities
25 Jan: Opened LONG at $34.74
22 Feb: Closed at $34.92
Profit $0.18, 0.5%

IndoAgri
30 Jan: Opened LONG at $1.455
20 Feb: Closed at $1.640
Profit $0.185, 12.7%

Alcoa
17 Feb: Opened LONG at $10.30
27 Feb: Closed at $10.38
Profit $0.08, 0.8%

Ezra
20 Feb: Opened SHORT at $1.320
24 Feb: Added on to existing SHORT at $1.255
29 Feb: Closed at $1.260
Profit $0.0275, 2.1%

DBS
28 Feb: Opened SHORT at $14.06
29 Feb: Closed at $14.36
Loss $0.30, 2.1%

Caterpillar: Bearish divergence on MONTHLY chart

Monthly chart shows CAT testing the previous high around $116.
There is a bearish divergence seen on both the monthly MACD-Histogram and Smoothed RSI.



Weekly Impulse allows to sell short.



Daily Impulse allows to sell short.
On this test of the previous high at $116, the MACD histogram is below the equilibrium line.


Outcome:

5 Mar: Opened SHORT at $111.42
8 Mar: Closed at $109.66
Reason for closing: bullish reversal supported at 50d SMA.
Profit $1.76, 1.6%