IndoAgri: Breakout from ascending triangle

Weekly chart shows a down trend, followed by a sideways consolidation.



Daily chart shows the ascending triangle and the breakout, followed by a test of the resistance-turned-support at $1.445.
The breakout has been confirmed with GMMA.
Compression and crossover within long-term group has taken place.
Short-term group is above and well separated from the long-term group.
Short-term group has expanded widely and long-term group is starting to expand.


Outcome:

30 Jan: Opened LONG at $1.455
20 Feb: Closed at $1.640
Resaon for closing: A non-ideal Unique Three Mountain Top bearish reversal candlestick pattern formed on 17 Feb.
Stochastic oscillator is overbought and there has not been a meaningful retracement for almost two months.
The downside risk is now greater than upside potential.
Measuring objective for the breakout from the ascending triangle pattern has not been achieved, and will look to buy again on a retracement.
Profit $0.185, 12.7%

SPDR Utilities: Bullish engulfing bouncing off top edge of cloud

Bullish engulfing reversal pattern formed at trend line.
Stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone, so the bullish engulfing reversal pattern satisfies the candle pattering filtering.
Bullish engulfing reversal pattern bouncing off the top edge of the cloud.
GMMA indicator shows evidence of up trend.


Outcome:

25 Jan: Opened LONG at $34.74
22 Feb: Closed at $34.92
Reason for closing: Spinning tops formed on 26 Jan and 17 Feb, both with high of $35.27.
Not able to rally higher than $35.27
Profit $0.18, 0.5%

DBS: Breakout from double bottom

Outcome:

26 Jan: Opened LONG at $13.43
12 Mar: Closed at $14.20
Reason for closing: Doji formed in weekly chart with overbought stochastics and MACD-Histogram ticked down.
Profit $0.77, 5.7%

Home Depot: Steady up trend

Weekly trend identification tools indicate bullishness.
Price and Lagging Line are above the cloud.
GMMA short-term group is well separated and moving up.
Long-term group is separating.
Distance between short-term group and long-term group is widening.


Daily trend identification tools indicate bullishness.
Price and Lagging Line are above the cloud.
Long-term group is well separated in a parallel pattern.
Distance between the groups of averages is constant.


Outcome:

23 Jan: Opened LONG at $44.19
22 Feb: Closed at $47.17
Reason for closing: Key Reversal Day on 21 Feb observed from:
a. Price gapping up at the open.
b. Large intra-day range compared to the preceeding sessions.
c. Price closing near the previous close
d. Heavy volume.
Profit $2.98, 6.7%

Bank of East Asia: Hanging man reversal

Trend identification tools confirm the down trend in the weekly time-frame.
Both the price and the Lagging Line are below the cloud, indicating a bearish state.
As the price is now above the Conversion and Base Lines, this could be a good place to enter short if there is a resumption in the down trend.
An over-bought situation or bearish divergence signal can give supporting evidence of the probability of a resumption in the down trend.
GMMA short term group is below the long term group and being resisted, thus supporting a bearish view in the weekly time-frame.


Weekly MACD-Histogram has ticked down, thus weekly Impulse allows to sell short in the daily time-frame.
There is a price-volume divergence in this counter-trend rally, and the stochastic oscillator is approaching the over-bought level.


Based on Ichimoku analysis, the daily time-frame is bullish since both price and Lagging Line are above the cloud.
In addition, the Conversion Line is above the Base Line.
However, examination of the GMMA indicator reveals that the long-term GMMA group is not expanding, thus suggesting that the bullishness is not supported by the investor group.


A non-ideal hanging man reversal pattern was formed just below the $30.00 S/R level confluence with down-sloping 200d SMA.
Daily MACD-Histogram is showing a bearish divergence.
Stochastic oscillator has given a bearish crossover signal from above the overbought level.

Conclusion: Weekly trend is down. Daily trend is up but show signs of faltering. Would like to enter a SHORT trade after what is believed to be the peak of a counter-trend rally.


Outcome:

9 Jan: Opened SHORT at $28.70
26 Jan: Covered at $31.35
Reason for covering: Stop loss triggered.
Loss $2.65, 9.2%

Trades closed in December 2011

Alcoa
9 Dec: Opened SHORT at $9.58
21 Dec: Covered at $8.82
Profit $0.76, 7.9%

IBM
21 Dec: Opened LONG at $181.74
21 Dec: Squared at $180.45
Loss $1.29, 0.7%