DBS: Fibonacci retracement setup

Weekly Impulse allows to sell short in the daily time-frame.



The price has been advancing for almost two months without a meaningful retracement.
Evening Star bearish reversal pattern formed.
The pattern is above the 10d EMA, and stochastic oscillator %D is above 80; this passes the candle pattern filtering.
Daily MACD-Histogram shows bearish divergence with price.

This is not a trend trade. This is a short-term counter-trend trade.
This trade is a hedge for the current open LONG position on DBS.

Cut loss if $14.22 resistance is broken; target to cover short at $13.09 (61.8% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

28 Feb: Opened SHORT at $14.06
29 Feb: Closed at $14.36
Reason for closing: Market gapped up at the open above the stop. Buy stop order at $14.22 was filled at $14.36 instead.
Loss $0.30, 2.1%

New World Development: Fibonacci retracement setup

The price has been advancing for almost two months without a meaningful retracement.
Shooting star formed, with price-volume divergence observed.
MACD-Histogram and smoothed RSI both showing bearish divergence.

This is not a trend trade. This is a short-term counter-trend trade.
Cut loss if $10.96 resistance is broken; target to cover short at $9.12 (61.8% Fibonacci)


Outcome:

28 Feb: Opened LONG at $10.68
14 Mar: Closed at $10.14
Reason for closing: Trailing-stop triggered.
Profit $0.54, 5.1%

Possible Bullish Flag: SIA Engg and HL Asia

Both showing steep rise in price with heavy volume to form the flagpole.
Then volume drying up during the formation of the flag.

Host Hotel n Resort: Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern

Weekly Impulse allows to go long in the daily time-frame.




Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern formed.
The engulfing candle completes a non-ideal Morning Star bullish reversal candlestick pattern.
The pattern was formed below the 10d EMA and stochastic oscillator %D is below 20; this passes the candle pattern filtering.



Daily Impulse allows to go long.



Price and Lagging Line are above the cloud. (bullish indication)
GMMA long-term group has not narrowed; it is moving sideways in a parallel pattern with minimal amount of compression.
GMMA short-term group has penetrated the long-term group and then turned up.


Outcome:

24 Feb: Opened LONG at $16.04
5 Mar: Closed at $15.45
Reason for closing: There is no evidence of further buying after the Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Furthermore, the 13w EMA and weekly MACD-Histogram are now both sloping down, so weekly Impulse does not allow to keep LONG position open.
Loss $0.59, 3.7%

Olam: My lottery play for a rebound

Olam had made a strong rally without a meaningful retracement.
It has been in retracement mode the last two weeks or so.
It has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

This is a lottery play because there is no clear buy signal other than the retracement level.

23 Feb: Opened LONG at $2.34
Cut loss if Olam breaks the $2.10 support, target to take profit at $2.76 (100% Fibonacci).


Outcome:

23 Feb: Opened LONG at $2.34
12 Mar: Closed at $2.28
Reason for closing: Crossover within GMMA long-term group of averages and weekly Impulse does not allow to hold long position.
Loss $0.06, 2.6%

Ezra: My lottery play for a retracement

Ezra has been going up for more than two months without a meaningful retracement.
Last week Tuesday there was a long white candle with heavy volume.
Wednesday was a candle with a short body also with heavy volume.
Despite the heavy volume, the bulls were not able to push the price much higher and instead had a long upper shadow.
Thursday was another candle with a long upper shadow.
Friday was a doji with lighter volume, indicating a decrease in buying interest to test the high.

Market is now overbought and the downside risk is greater than the upside potential.

20 Feb: Opened SHORT at $1.32 to make a lottery play for a retracement that is long overdue.
Cut loss if Ezra makes new high, target to cover short at $1.14 (61.8% Fibonacci).
Add on to short position if close below $1.27.


Outcome:

20 Feb: Opened SHORT at $1.320
24 Feb: Added on to existing SHORT at $1.255
29 Feb: Closed at $1.260
Reason for closing: Two-bar Inside Day reversal pattern seen.
Profit $0.0275, 2.1%

Union Pacific: Morning Star bullish reversal pattern

A non-ideal Morning Star bullish reversal pattern formed, supported by the up trend line.
Non-ideal because the third day of the pattern did not close higher than the mid-point of the first day.
The pattern was formed below the 10d EMA and stochastic oscillator %D is below 20; this passes the candle pattern filtering.

Volume analysis reveals that the long black candle was formed with heavy volume.
However, the star despite having a much smaller real body and smaller intra-day range traded with even greater volume.
This shows that a large number of shares changed hands from the "weak hands" to the "smart money" at this turning point.
The third day of the pattern shows that the bulls came in force with heavy volume as well.

GMMA long-term group has not narrowed; it is moving sideways in a parallel pattern with minimal amount of compression.
GMMA short-term group has penetrated the long-term group and then turned up.


Outcome:

21 Feb: Opened LONG at $110.50
6 Mar: Closed at $105.90
Reason for closing: Stop-loss order triggered.
Loss $4.60, 4.2%